If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Question

"Completed" doesn't require the publication of a peer-reviewed article, just notice from a relevant research team. Will resolve NA if a hep C human challenge trial is NOT completed by the end of 2024; see paired question.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/GavrielK/if-a-human-challenge-trial-for-a-he-ba6e58ba26c9)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (11 traders, as of Jul 31, 2023).